Tropical Update - Although the broader circulation for Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 (PTC 9) has become better defined, Air Force Reconnaissance aircraft were unable to find a closed circulation, so PTC 9 is not yet a Tropical Storm. It will likely become one later today or in the immediate future.
Winds are currently at about 45 MPH with movement WNW at 23 MPH. On Thursday we expect to see the system interact with the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola which is expected to disrupt the system somewhat. Further interaction with Cuba should result in Southwesterly shear and inhibit immediate re -intensification. A ridge to the North is expected to weaken, allowing PTC 9 to move toward Florida.
The track and intensity of this system is still quite uncertain.
The two main factors are: 1.) Where does the center actually reform and allow the models to initialize 2.) What’s left of it after interaction with land and can it maintain organization
Discussion: A stronger system is expected to turn North sooner and work along the East side of the guidance envelope. A weaker system the converse. Without a defined center, it’s all best guess at this point. Current estimates keep the system as a Tropical Storm and the wind radii will tighten up a bit if the system organizes more. We have a ways to go yet and will need to monitor these influences to see what we can expect for local impacts. We will keep a close eye on it and update as available.
Check out the Okaloosa County Hurricane guide to stay prepared, ahead of hurricane season: co.okaloosa.fl.us/sites/default/files/users/piouser/Hurricane%20Guide%202020-3%20.pdf