💪 Find tips and resources for staying prepared ahead of the storm HERE.
🚨 Stay tuned to AlertOkaloosa.com for local conditions.
🖱️ Click HERE to visit Okaloosa County's Official Website.
🌀 Continuous Hurricane Sally Updates can be found HERE.
10.8.20 9am - No great changes to track or timing. Hurricane Delta is expected to make landfall along the South-central or Southwest Louisiana coast on Friday afternoon/evening as a Cat 2 hurricane. Steering currents have held true so far and NWS is confident in the forecast track. The models are tightly clustered (see graphic). Okaloosa County is out of the “Earliest Arrival of Tropical Storm Force Winds” graphic as they are not expected here, though a gust or two can’t be completely ruled out. We're still keeping an eye on the wind field as it is expected to grow as Delta spends time over the Gulf. She’s a little less than half-way between the Yucatan and landfall now, so there’s still time for wind radii to grow. We are expected to receive .5-1.5 inches of rain in total and any watches/warnings are well West of our location. Long-period swell is expected to arrive at the Gulf beaches this morning along with 6-9 wave heights causing some dangerous surf conditions through Saturday morning. Some wave run-up can be expected in areas where Hurricane Sally caused significant erosion but otherwise, only minor coastal flooding may occur.
EOC Command Staff are active and monitoring and have been in contact with potential Section Chiefs in case additional ramp-up becomes necessary. Additionally, evacuations and shelter openings are not expected at this time, but we will continue to evaluate with each model run.
All in all, we find ourselves in a fortunate position and must remember to keep those in Delta’s path in our thoughts. Stay tuned for further. See below for extensive Hurricane Delta Briefing.
10.7.20 10am - Stay tuned to http://nhc.noaa.gov for the latest on Hurricane Delta, still a 105 MPH storm moving NW across the tip of the Yucatan at 17 MPH. The track has taken another 45 mile jog to the West and landfall is still projected to be mid-day Friday. We'll continue to monitor and will attend an 11am call with the National Weather Service. More details to follow after the NWS call.
10.6.20 12:30pm - Please see the attached slide deck from the NWS webinar this morning at the end of this article.
Hurricane Delta has rapidly intensified into a 130 MPH Cat 4 hurricane moving WNW at 16MPH, heading for a brush with the Yucatan Peninsula Wednesday morning. Some modest weakening is expected due to interaction with land but re-strengthening to Cat 4 will likely occur as it emerges into the Gulf. Some weakening is expected as the storm makes its Northward turn due to wind shear and cooler water temperatures. Landfall is still forecast to be along the South/Central Louisiana Coast either late Friday or early Sat AM as a weakening Cat 2 hurricane.
Model guidance has been relatively tightly clustered and steering currents are stable at the moment, so there is good confidence on the track at this time. Sally was the opposite of that wherein steering currents had collapsed and outlying models were pushing East. That is not to say that this can’t change- but a Louisiana landfall is looking increasingly likely. If the NHC forecast holds (and there is even some indications there may be another adjustment West), currently there is a 19% chance of T/S winds (gusts) in Crestview and 17% chance in Destin. Strong T/S wind gusts (58-73 MPH) are at 3%, hurricane winds at 1%. As far as storm surge is concerned, on the current track this is a “minor coastal flooding” event with 1-3’ of surge (3’ on the very high end on that) mainly during high tide Fri night into Saturday. Surf heights of 6-10’ and dangerous rip currents are likely Friday and some minor beach erosion and wave run-up is not off the table. Rainfall of 2-5” across the area is possible, but less likely with the compact wind radii of this system- as long as the track holds. We will continue to monitor further and provide updates. Stay tuned and stay tuned to https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
10.6.20 10am - Just a quick update before we participate in the NWS conference call later this AM. No major changes in track, but Hurricane Delta is now forecast to reach Cat 4 in the Gulf prior to weakening before landfall as a Cat 2 in Southern Louisiana early Saturday AM (timing slowed a bit). Although the models are in good alignment on track, changes and center relocations can occur after landfall with the Yucatan, so we will monitor closely. More on expected local impacts after the NWS call this morning. For real-time storm updates visit https://www.nhc.noaa.gov. We'll share a more extensive update late-morning after the National Weather Service Conference Call.
10.05.20 2:20pm Okaloosa County Public Works will have sand distribution centers* open by 4pm today at the following locations:
1759 S Ferdon Blvd, Crestview – In the Public Works Yard along Goodwin Ave.
710 Essex Rd, Ft. Walton Beach – outside the fence in the turn-around area.
*Sandbags and sand are available 24/7 for citizens to fill on their own, free of charge. Please remember there is a limited supply of bags. Bring a shovel and it may become necessary to bring bags.
10.05.20 11am - Okaloosa County Public Safety participated in an AM webinar with the National Weather Service (NWS). At this time it is still too early to discuss landfall location or local impacts (potential margin of error at 4 days out is 160 miles), but the below information is available at this time:
Delta is expected to gain hurricane strength on Tuesday or early Wednesday and potentially reach Cat 2 strength prior to landfall somewhere along the Northern Gulf coast on Friday.
The timing of the turn to the North, then Northwest is the key to level of impacts felt in Florida.
As with any landfalling tropical system, storm surge, rip currents, heavy surf, heavy rain, strong winds including tornadoes are possible.
Weakened trees and previously damaged structures (from Sally) are areas of concern
Earliest possible arrival of tropical storm force winds is Thursday AM, most likely arrival is Friday AM.
The surge situation is complex and it is too early to discuss local impacts at this time, but highest surge potential is during high tide Friday night into Saturday.
Surf heights of 5-8 feet can be expected.
Rainfall is currently expected to be 4-7 inches, minor to moderate river flooding is possible in some areas. River forecasts have not yet picked up on the modeling, but we have time.
The system is expected to encounter shear and cooler waters prior to landfall which may assist in some weakening or prohibit rapid strengthening closer to landfall.
Stay tuned for further updates- there will be changes. The track has already shifted West about 65 miles since the first advisory, so we hope that trend continues. We are discussing EOC status and the need for other protective actions at this time. View Tropical Storm Delta briefing PDF below.
10.05.20 10am- Please see the NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center 10am advisory, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov along with discussion from Okaloosa County Public Safety regarding Tropical Storms Gamma and Delta:
🌀 Gamma is forecast to spend the next couple of days moving Southwest along the Yucatan coast before being dragged North in the wake of Delta. There is a possibility that the strongly-sheared, smaller Gamma is absorbed by Delta as it tracks Northwest across the Gulf, creating a binary system.
🌀 Delta is forecast to reach hurricane strength on Wednesday, but I see it happening earlier than that, and further strengthening will likely occur. Delta will approach the Northern Gulf Coast as a hurricane, but track and intensity forecasts still contain considerable uncertainty. At this time landfall is projected Friday during the morning or afternoon hours, with the earliest arrival of tropical storm force winds Thursday AM.
🚨 We are in early discussions of EOC status and further protective measures to be taken. Okaloosa Public Safety will be attending the morning NWS webinar shortly. We'll continue to monitor and update.
📲 For the latest track and direct links to Okaloosa County's best preparations resources visit bit.ly/2QaJ1f0OkaloosaHurricaneResources